Economic sensor for Misiones province from 2005 to 2018

Abstract

This paper presents the construction of a composite indicator of economic activity for the province of Misiones for the period 2005 – 2018, in order to measure fluctuations of economic and growth cycles. The methodologies proposed by The Conference Board (2001) and Jorrat (2003), that are referents at international and national levels respectively, are used. This methodology gives less weight to time series which variations have more volatility. After selecting eleven component series from public sources of information and representatives from different sectors of the provincial economic activity, seasonally adjusted using X-13 ARIMA and aggregating them, it is obtained a composite indicator representative for the economic activity, named Misiones Economic Sensor (MisES). This indicator is a first approximation of provincial economic activity’s fluctuations, and given that cross correlation with EMAE (Mensual Estimator of Economic Activity) is 0.93 when t=0, it is presumed that it is represents fluctuations observed in the provincial economy.