Construction of scenarios in models of financial administration. Application of decisions theory in crisis situations : the case of Misiones water services

Abstract

The crisis situation faced by public services in the post-convertibility era, gave way to the opportunity to apply some Decision Science tools to the renegotiation of the committed obligations with the main involved actors. At first a training course, was held, which was of vital importance, due to the knowledge and clarity of achieved ideas, referred to the existing problems. It was of exceptional help to the top management, as to the crisis in which they were in. After discussing facts, alternatives and actions to be carried out, in the enterprise, it was decided to do a mathematical model, which backed by tools such as Decision Trees, Montecarlo Simulation and Multivariate Statistics would render very important information, which would help the negotiations being carried out. This paper tries to explain the most important steps accomplished, preserving the enterprise's confidentiality, the same the software owner's property rights.